Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008328 0.009396 0.010550 0.011891 0.013405 0.015064 0.017021
2025-12-21 0.006401 0.007816 0.009471 0.011552 0.014102 0.017128 0.020998
2025-12-28 0.005629 0.007258 0.009271 0.011944 0.015408 0.019755 0.025640
2026-01-04 0.005024 0.006772 0.009030 0.012167 0.016424 0.022016 0.029950
2026-01-11 0.004583 0.006420 0.008886 0.012449 0.017482 0.024362 0.034529
2026-01-18 0.004108 0.005955 0.008521 0.012360 0.017978 0.025937 0.038137
2026-01-25 0.003738 0.005591 0.008247 0.012347 0.018548 0.027624 0.042011
2026-02-01 0.003375 0.005195 0.007880 0.012148 0.018799 0.028833 0.045240
2026-02-08 0.003132 0.004952 0.007712 0.012221 0.019451 0.030673 0.049566
2026-02-15 0.002880 0.004670 0.007454 0.012121 0.019807 0.032058 0.053263
2026-02-22 0.002735 0.004544 0.007425 0.012378 0.020745 0.034429 0.058751
2026-03-01 0.002476 0.004207 0.007027 0.011988 0.020571 0.034949 0.061145
2026-03-08 0.002278 0.003958 0.006759 0.011802 0.020739 0.036076 0.064728
2026-03-15 0.002073 0.003681 0.006421 0.011467 0.020619 0.036696 0.067467
2026-03-22 0.002008 0.003644 0.006492 0.011855 0.021811 0.039709 0.074802
2026-03-29 0.001922 0.003560 0.006474 0.012077 0.022710 0.042257 0.081483
2026-04-05 0.001852 0.003499 0.006488 0.012357 0.023736 0.045112 0.088987
2026-04-12 0.001736 0.003343 0.006316 0.012268 0.024046 0.046634 0.094001
2026-04-19 0.001640 0.003217 0.006189 0.012255 0.024501 0.048460 0.099769
2026-04-26 0.001529 0.003054 0.005978 0.012057 0.024567 0.049520 0.104048
2026-05-03 0.001459 0.002965 0.005906 0.012130 0.025185 0.051728 0.110907
2026-05-10 0.001375 0.002842 0.005755 0.012031 0.025435 0.053199 0.116308
2026-05-17 0.001335 0.002805 0.005774 0.012286 0.026450 0.056336 0.125599